Equity markets across the world have been reeling lately, and our trading range charts for indices of 22 countries highlight the carnage. Countries to recently take big hits include Brazil, Canada, South Africa, and of course, Russia. Any time the price moves below the green shading, it is trading more than 2 standard deviations below its 50-day moving average. Below the green shading is considered extreme oversold territory, and prices don’t typically stay that oversold for extended periods of time.
The one positive chart might be India’s Sensex index that has moved back above its 50-day moving average recently and formed a short-term uptrend.
This past year’s declines in local and international markets have had their beginnings at different points in time. This chart below, produced by the fine folks at Bespoke, pays no attention to their timing. Its not a pretty picture, but the perspective sure is useful. Often, we are subjected to guided reporting, where issuers or promoters use numbers and moving averages that “soften” the real numbers.
Canada comes out on top!
Here below is what most investors really want to know; How did they perform from peak until now, irrespective of timing?
After declining 4.25% on Wednesday, 3.94% yesterday, and 3.75% today, Russia’s RTS index is now 41.19% below its 52-week high. These declines put it second to last behind China when looking at recent equity market returns for 22 major countries. As shown, China has fallen 64% from its 52-week high last October! The declines recently in global equity markets have really been astounding. Japan, Spain, Brazil, India, Italy, South Korea, Singapore, Sweden, Taiwan, and Hong Kong all join China and Russia with equity markets off at least 30% from their 52-week highs. North American countries rank 1,2,3 as far as countries holding up the best. International exposure has never hurt so bad.
Below we highlight the estimated current year P/E ratios and dividend yields for the major equity indices of 13 countries. As shown, Europe has the lowest estimated P/E ratios, with Italy, the UK and France all below 10. The US ranks 3rd to last behind China and Japan. European equity markets also offer some attractive dividend yields well above 4%.
June 24, 2008 - Courtesy of Bespoke Investment Group - The recent selloff in equities has really spared no one. As shown in our trading range charts below of 22 major country indices, the trend has been down across the board in recent weeks. Even Brazil, Mexico and Russia, who had all held up relatively well this year, have sold off quite a bit. Currently, 19 of the 22 countries are trading in oversold territory (Canada, Japan and Russia are neutral). European countries like France, Germany and Italy have really taken it on the chin, while China and India remain the biggest losers in 2008. After forming short-term uptrends off of the March lows, global equity markets have now lost most of their gains and are looking to move back into downtrends.
Donald Coxe: Capitalism Faces its Greatest Challenge
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Worst Oil Bear in Decades
The 53% decline in oil prices since September 22, 2008, without a 20% rally is the biggest since 1986 (based on available daily data). The week of Sep. 16 to Sep. 22, oil rallied 20%+ after dropping 37% from the July 3, 2008 high.
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Year to Date World Stock Market Returns
Is this a buyer's market or what?
Look at Russia; although most folks aren't interested (but should be) Russia is not only off by -64.5%, its valuations have compressed to 4.3 times trailing earnings. China stocks are down -64.3% is fetching 14.55
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Ken Heebner, CGM Funds, and Frank Holmes, US Global Investors, discuss emerging markets in the context of the Fed's 50 bps rate cut last week. Both their
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Success is going from failure to failure without a loss of enthusiam. — Winston Churchill
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Wall Street Journal's What's News, Nov. 18, 2008by The Wall Street Journal
Yahoo CEO Jerry Yang will step down and Senator Harry Reid has pledged to press ahead with legislation to help automakers
Jeffrey Saut Daily Audio Comment Raymond James
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