Archive for the ‘Brazil’ Category
Monday, September 1st, 2008
Mark Mobius, executive chairman of Templeton Asset Management, is very positive on commodities, especially integrated emerging markets oil companies including Chinese and Indian energy firms like Reliance. He shares his views with CNBC’s Martin Soong and Sri Jegarajah.
click to view video
“China’s Still a Great Investment”
The long-term story in China is still very bright. And investors should take note that H-shares are currently trading at a substantial discount to their A-share counterparts says Mark Mobius, executive chairman at Templeton Asset Management. He also goes further afield to say that Russia is in a sweet spot, that Putin has done all the right things for Russia and comments positively that Russia’s diplomacy in the Georgia affair has far reaching foreign relations benefits.
Tags: China, Commodities, Gold, Iron Ore, Mark Mobius, Metals, nickel, Oil & Gas
Posted in Agriculture, BRIC, Brazil, China, Commodities, Emerging Markets, Gold, India, Infrastructure, Markets, Oil & Gas | No Comments »
Saturday, August 30th, 2008
As you know, GreenLightAdvisor.com is a huge fan of the outspoken Hugh Hendry, CIO, Eclectica Asset, who has been a unique, eloquent, and brash voice in this market. Its our sense that Hendry is also uniquely alone, and lucid, in the marketplace in terms of his outlook, and for this reason should be added to your must see/must listen to list.
click image to watch
The segment which aired August 19, 2008 on CNBC Europe, also contains midway, a terrific interview with GE CEO Jeff Immelt.
“There is no role for speculation or speculators today. This is kaput,” Hendry said. “If we were Second World War generals, we’ve exposed our flanks. We’ve been wiped out. This is about fundamentals … this is about losing money.”
As the crisis unfolds, the policymakers’ focus should shift from the threat of inflation to that of the world economic downturn, which could be more severe than economists anticipate, he said. (Watch Hendry’s interview below for more on the economy, inflation and commodities).
China, which many believe will balance out slowdowns elsewhere, will struggle if difficulties in the U.S. continue, while the current spike in producer prices is just a hangover from rising oil prices earlier this year, Hendry said.
“I fear that the central bankers of the world are fighting yesterday’s battle,” he said.
As for the banking sector, it is “insolvent,” Hendry said, adding he can’t tell just how low those stocks will go.
Tags: Banks, Commodities, Economy, Hugh Hendry, Monetary Policy, Recession
Posted in BRIC, Banks, Brazil, China, Commodities, Credit Markets, Crude Oil, Economy, Emerging Markets, Financials, Fixed Income, Gold, India, International Markets, Markets, inflation | No Comments »
Tuesday, July 1st, 2008
July 1, 2008 - The first half of this year has been chaotic and confusing for investors given the Subprime fiasco and rapid deterioration of fundamentals in the Banking and Finance sectors, the secular selloff in stocks globally, recession in the US, and soaring oil and commodity prices.
US Global Investors, an American mutual fund company, founded by Toronto native, Frank Holmes, interviews Dr. Marc Faber, author of the Gloom, Boom, and Doom Report, for 1:15 hrs in this highly informative webcast (courtesy of Investment Postcards) aptly titled, “Where is the Boom, Gloom and Doom?”
Please click here to listen to the webcast.
Source: US Global Investors, June 27, 2008.
Tags: BRIC, China, Commodities, Emerging Markets, Frank Holmes, GDP Growth, globalization, GloomBoomDoom, GreenLightAdvisor.com, India, Infrastructure, Marc Faber, oil, urbanization
Posted in Agriculture, BRIC, Brazil, China, Commodities, Credit Markets, Eastern Europe, Emerging Markets, Financials, India, Markets, energy | No Comments »
Tuesday, June 24th, 2008
June 24, 2008 - Courtesy of Bespoke Investment Group - The recent selloff in equities has really spared no one. As shown in our trading range charts below of 22 major country indices, the trend has been down across the board in recent weeks. Even Brazil, Mexico and Russia, who had all held up relatively well this year, have sold off quite a bit. Currently, 19 of the 22 countries are trading in oversold territory (Canada, Japan and Russia are neutral). European countries like France, Germany and Italy have really taken it on the chin, while China and India remain the biggest losers in 2008. After forming short-term uptrends off of the March lows, global equity markets have now lost most of their gains and are looking to move back into downtrends.
Tags: Australia, Bolsa, Brazil, CAC 40, Canada, China, DAX, France, FTSE, Germany, Hong Kong, HSI, IBEX, India, International, Italy, Japan, KLSE, KOSPI, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, Markets, Mexico, MIB 30, Nikkei 225, OMX, RTS, Russia, Russian Trading System, Sensex, Shanghai Composite, Singapore, SMI, Snapshot, South Africa, South Korea, Spain, Straits Times, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Top 40, TWSE, UK
Posted in Brazil, China, Emerging Markets, India, International Markets, Latin America, Markets, Russia, US Stocks | No Comments »
Saturday, May 31st, 2008
In his recent speech at Yale Class Day, Tony Blair had the following to share with students. The speech is well worth reading on many fronts, but if you’re an investor, then you’ll be interested in knowing what one of the great leaders of the free world has to say about what this century holds for both the West and the East.
For the first time in many centuries, power is moving East. China and India each have populations roughly double those of America and Europe combined.
In the next two decades, these two countries together will undergo industrialisation four times the size of the USA’s and at five times the speed.
We must be mindful that as these ancient civilisations become somehow younger and more vibrant, our young civilisation does not grow old. Most of all we should know that in this new world, we must clear a path to partnership, not stand off against each other, competing for power.
The complete speech can be read here:
The Office of Tony Blair - Yale Class Day Speech
Tags: China, India, Markets, philosophy, tony blair, wisdom, Yale Class Day
Posted in BRIC, Brazil, China, Economy, Emerging Markets, Geo-political, India, Infrastructure, Markets | No Comments »
Monday, May 26th, 2008
May 26, 2008 - Pimco’s Bill Gross makes a most humorous analyses, drawing parallels that the hordes are marching on the new Rome (America), and that its time to act. Make sure you read this must read, the June 2008 Investment Outlook, by Bill Gross. At the end, Gross puts forth his recommendations.
What this country needs is either a good 5 cent cigar or the reincarnation of an Illinois “rail-splitter” willing to tell the American people “what up” -”what really up.” We have for so long now been willing to be entertained rather than informed, that we more or less accept majority opinion, perpetually shaped by ratings obsessed media, at face value. After 12 months of an endless primary campaign barrage, for instance, most of us believe that a candidate’s preacher - Democrat or Republican - should be a significant factor in how we vote. We care more about who’s going to be eliminated from this week’s American Idol than the deteriorating quality of our healthcare system. Alternative energy discussion takes a bleacher’s seat to the latest foibles of Lindsay Lohan or Britney Spears and then we wonder why gas is four bucks a gallon. We care as much as we always have - we just care about the wrong things: entertainment, as opposed to informed choices; trivia vs. hardcore ideological debate.)
It’s Sunday afternoon at the Coliseum folks, and all good fun, but the hordes are crossing the Alps and headed for modern day Rome - better educated, harder working, and willing to sacrifice today for a better tomorrow. Can it be any wonder that an estimated 1% of America’s wealth migrates into foreign hands hands every year? We, as a people, are overweight, poorly educated, overindulged, and imbued with such a sense or self importance on a geopolitical scale, that our allies are dropping like flies. “Yes we can?” Well, if so, then the “we” is the critical element, not the leader that will be chosen in November. Let’s get off the couch and shape up-physically, intellectually, and institutionally-and begin to make some informed choices about our future. Lincoln didn’t say it, but might have agreed, that the worst part about being fooled is fooling yourself, and as a nation, we’ve been doing a pretty good job of that for a long time now.
Bill Gross - Investment Outlook - June 2008 - “Hmmmmm”
Tags: Bill Gross, BRICs, Emerging Markets, Fixed Income, Hordes, inflation, Investment Wisdom, Markets, philosophy, PIMCO, rome
Posted in BRIC, Brazil, CPI, China, Commodities, Economy, Emerging Markets, Financials, Geo-political, India, Infrastructure, Markets, Oil & Gas, Politics, Russia, US Stocks, inflation | No Comments »
Monday, May 12th, 2008
May 12, 2008 - Jerome Booth, Head of Research at Ashmore Investment Management, UK, has written an insightful article for FT.com, Insight: A Global Rebalancing Act, May 12, 2008. Here are a few excerpts:
Gross national savings are over 30 per cent of GDP on average in emerging countries, and for a decade private and official savers in these countries have been investing overseas – in the US and Europe – under the impression that these were safer markets than at home. Yet the dollar is far from the safest currency and not the store of value it was. US Treasuries are not zero risk – the implicit myth in the term “the risk-free rate”. Treasuries have currency, curve and volatility risks. Investors in triple A structured credit got a shock when they realised their investment was risky.
Likewise emerging market savers are getting a shock about Treasuries and other US and European assets. The money is returning home, and the move is structural, not cyclical. The global imbalance of a negative US personal savings rate on the one hand being financed by high emerging savings on the other is starting to reverse.
With this reversal, or rebalancing, is coming, we believe, a currency realignment and a series of investment booms across emerging economies as investment focus shifts. Rather than using “decoupling” in describing the impact of the credit crunch on emerging markets, we should use “negative correlation”.
The policy asymmetry between the US and emerging markets is that the emerging markets, with undervalued currencies, have an additional degree of freedom. They have the choice to mess up (do nothing) or control inflation (let the currency rise, raise interest rates). In our view, emerging market central banks will largely pass this test and do the sensible thing, though this is not what the market appears to have priced in yet.
As recently as ten years ago, emerging markets still held their hands out for development loans and foreign aid. Today, their fiscal prudence and wealth has put them in the position of bailing out the western banking system.
Why are investors taking so long to realize this critical distinction and its meaning?
Tags: Ashmore Investment Management, BRIC, Emerging Markets, Jerome Booth, Markets, Savings Rate
Posted in Brazil, China, Commodities, Emerging Markets, Financials, India, Latin America, Markets, Russia | No Comments »
Wednesday, April 30th, 2008
April 30, 2008 - CIBC World Markets Chief Strategist, Jeff Rubin, says that Oil will eventually reach $150/barrel in 2010 and over $200/barrel by 2012. He cites among the leading reasons, the advent of cheap cars from India and China, or rather Tatas and Cherys, that will enable millions of middle class Asians who couldn’t previously afford a car, to do so, Take these developments and place them agaisnt the backdrop of peak oil and a decline in oil exports from key suppliers, Saudi Arabia, Russia and Kuwait, and we are in the midst of a long term supply/demand imbalance. Here are couple of excerpts:
Whether we are already at the peak in world oil production remains to be seen, but it is increasingly clear that the outlook for oil supply signals a period of unprecedented scarcity.
Our latest review of probable supply suggests oil production will hardly grow at all, with average daily production between now and 2012 rising by barely more than a million barrels per day (see pages 4-7). Despite the recent record jump in oil prices, the outlook suggests that oil prices will continue to rise steadily over the next five years, almost doubling from current levels.
While global oil supply is not growing, global gasoline demand is, and will continue to grow as cheap cars from Tata and Chery dramatically cut barriers to car ownership in the developing world. Millions of new households will suddenly have straws to start sucking at the world’s rapidly shrinking oil reserves.
Car purchases in Russia, for example, are exploding as US sales stagnate (Chart 2), while in India the advent of the Tata Nano, a car that will sell for as little as US$2,500 will allow millions of households in the developing world to own automobiles when they otherwise could not. It is the savings necessary to buy a car, not the price of gasoline that poses the greatest obstacle to fuel demand growth in those countries. But between rapidly rising domestic incomes and rapidly falling car prices, that obstacle is becoming more and more surmountable.
To read the complete report, click here:
StrategEcon: The Age of Scarcity, CIBC World Markets, April 24, 2008
Tags: Asia, Chery, CIBC World Markets, Economy, energy, India, Jeff Rubin, Middle Class, oil, Russia, Scarcity, Tata
Posted in Agriculture, Banks, Brazil, CPI, China, Commodities, Credit Markets, Crude Oil, Economy, Emerging Markets, Financials, Geo-political, Gold, India, International Markets, Latin America, Oil & Gas, Russia, energy | No Comments »
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